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中国会成为一个无可匹敌的超级大国吗? [美国网评]

五毛网 美国 2018年03月12日 来源:龙腾网
中国将在2040年成为一个无可匹敌的超级大国,到那时中国将:· 全面主导世界经济。中国的人口是欧盟的三倍,因此,在2040,中国的经济将比美国、欧洲和日本经济加起来还要大50%。这与诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·福格尔(RobertFogel)2010年的预测一致......
Godfree Roberts, Ed.D. Education & Geopolitics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst (1973)


China will become an unrivaled superpower in 2040, when it will


·  Dominate every aspect of the world’s economy. China’s population is three times the EU’s so, in 2040, her economy will be fifty percent bigger than the American, European and Japanese economies combined. That’s in line with Nobelist Robert Fogel’s 2010 prediction, “China’s per capita income will hit $85,000 by 2040–more than double the forecast for the European unx–and her share of global GDP, 40 percent, will dwarf that of the United States. That is what economic hegemony will look like”.

·  全面主导世界经济。中国的人口是欧盟的三倍,因此,在2040,中国的经济将比美国、欧洲和日本经济加起来还要大50%。这与诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·福格尔(RobertFogel)2010年的预测一致:“到2040,中国人均收入将达到85000美元---是欧盟预期的两倍多---她在全球GDP中所占的份额将达到40%,美国与之相比相形见绌,这是真正的经济霸权该有的样子“。·  Dominate every scientific discipline. The Japan Science and Technology Agency says China is already the most influential country in four of eight core scientific fields, tying with the U.S. China ranks first in computer science, mathematics, materials science and engineering while the U.S. leads in physics, environmental and earth sciences, basic life science and clinical medicine–but China is rapidly catching up in physics (it is spent $6 billion building the world's largest particle accelerator, which should give it the lead in particle physics). Ten years ago, China led in none of these disciplines and, at its current pace it will lead all of them in less than thirteen years.

·  主导所有科学学科。“日本科学技术振兴机构”( Japan Science and Technology Agency)表示,中国已经是八个核心科学领域中最有影响力的国家,与美国并列。中国在计算机科学、数学、材料科学和工程领域排名第一,而美国在物理、环境和地球科学、基础生命科学和临床医学方面领先---但中国在物理学方面正在迅速追赶(中国斥资六十亿美元建造了世界上最大的粒子加速器,这将使它在粒子物理学方面处于领先地位)。十年前,中国在这些学科中完全没有领先,但以目前的速度,它将在不到13年的时间内主导所有这些学科。

·  Dominate every technology. China already leads the world in all fields of civil engineering, manufacturing, supercomputing, speech recognition, graphenics, thorium power, pebble bed reactors, genomics, thermal power generation, quantum communication networks, ASW missiles, in-orbit satellite refueling, passive array radar, metamaterials, hyperspectral imaging, nanotechnology, UHV electricity transmission, electric vehicles, high speed rail, sustainable energy, radio telescopy, sustainable energy research and manufacturing, hypersonic space weapons, satellite quantum communications and quantum secure direct communications. By 2030 it will dominate the remaining technologies like computer chip making and artificial intelligence.

·  主导每项技术。中国已经在土木工程、制造业、超级计算、语音识别、图形学、钍动力、球床反应堆、基因组学、火力发电、量子通信网络、反潜导弹、在轨卫星、被动阵列雷达、超材料、高光谱成像、纳米技术、特高压输电、电动汽车、高速铁路、可持续能源、无线电望远镜、可持续能源研究和制造、高超音速空间武器、量子通讯卫星和量子安全通信等领域领先世界。到2030,它将主导剩下的技术,如计算机芯片制造和人工智能等。

·  Dominate militarily. By 2020 China will completely dominate the battlespace within 500 miles of her borders on land sea and air where her defensive weaponry is more advanced and numerous than America’s offensive suite. Her economy is already much stronger than America’s and, though fleets win battles, economies win wars.

·  在军事上占主导地位。到2020,中国将在距离她的边界500英里内的陆地、海上和空中完全占据主动,在那里她的防御武器比美国的进攻性武器更加先进,数量也更多。那时,她的经济会比美国强大得多:舰队赢得战斗,但经济却能赢得战争。

· Dominate Cyberspace and the Internet. China already dominates the Internet in sheer size and by 2035 more people will transact business on the Internet and spend more doing so than all the citizens in Europe and North America combined.

·  主导网络空间和互联网。中国已经在互联网上独占鳌头,到2035,将有更多的人在互联网上进行交易,其交易量和交易金额将超过欧洲和北美所有公民的总和。

· Dominate in citizen well-being. Thanks to the current anti-poverty drive, by 2020 China will have safer streets, better education, higher social mobility, more rich people and fewer hungry, homeless and poor people than America.

·  在公民幸福度上占主导地位。由于目前的反贫困运动,到2020,中国将拥有比美国更安全的街道、更好的教育、更高的社会流动性、更多的富人和更少的饥饿、无家可归者和穷人。· Dominate the world ethically. If the government follows President Xi’s suggestions, by 2049 China will again have the same GINI coefficient–the most equitable sharing of wealth–as it did under Mao, and the best human rights record of any major government.

·  在道德上主导世界。如果政府遵循习的建议,到2049,中国将再次拥有与毛泽东时代一样的基尼系数--最公平的财富分享系数--也将是所有主要政府中最好的人权记录。

·  Become the most trusted government on earth. If China avoids wars, doesn’t meddle in other countries’ internal affairs, develops southern and eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America and accomplishes the six tasks listed above, it will become the world’s arbiter and natural leader in 2040.

·  成为地球上最值得信赖的政府。如果中国避免战争,不干涉别国内政,发展与南欧、东欧、非洲和拉美的关系,完成上述六项任务,2040年中国将成为世界的仲裁者和自然领袖。 

Paul Denlinger:
Nov 28 · 28 upvotes
I don’t think the US will exist anymore in 2040, which means that the US$ will not be around as a reserve currency.
Instead, the US will fracture into smaller mini-states, each with its radically different politics.
Basically, the US experiment will end spectacularly.



Hoang Nghiem (严黄):
Nov 28 · 4 upvotes
I didn’t think the US was really that fragile was it? I’m curious as to why the Americans would intentionally self-fracture themselves into many smaller nation states.



Paul Denlinger:
US unity depends on the American people; the US is the real People’s Republic.
That unity is gone.
It is like a bad marriage; both sides hate each other, but no one wants to be the first asking for a divorce.



Hoang Nghiem (严黄):
Paul, you’re referring to the current social divide between conservatives and liberals right?

保罗, 你指的是保守派和自由派之间当前的社会分化,对吧?


Paul Denlinger:
Not only.
Americans have always believed this myth that American society is classless. However, following the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the whole society is dividing along economic class lines.
It is going to split into so many pieces, and it will be impossible to put it back together unless the US produces a leader like Mao.



Hank Barley:
There’s nothing like a war to stir up patriotism and unite the people. Recall how popular Bush was when Iraq was invaded? Based on false pretense or not, the country was united and his approval rating shot to the 90% range.



Aaron Delt
More Chinese nationalist pep rally mentality. Its just your wet dream. People have been betting against the US for a long time.



Josh Bergeman:
As someone who lives in the US I can say with a fair degree of accuracy that the US is NOT going to break apart any time soon! I know that we may seem devided, but the truth is that most of us simply don't care that much about politics! You have to realize that only about 130 million people even bothered to vote in our last election! That's out of a population of over 300 million! Unless there is a major economic meltdown most of us are just busy living our lives and not worrying about politics! I know it's sad, but that's just the way it is!



Hoang Nghiem (严黄):
Yep, I agree Josh, it’s why I had to ask Paul to clarify and justify himself. Things may look bad now with “the Donald” in the White House, but the US is still doing pretty well for itself I think!



Jeffery Zhang:
Normally I would say you are right, but this really depends on how badly the quality of life deteriorates for the middle class. Most people don’t care about politics, but they do care about their own quality of life.
Give how national policies of the US has made basic cost of living + healthcare + education so prohibitively expensive for average Americans, the US populace will increasingly be drawn to radical political solutions.
American millennials are doing worse economically than their parents at the same age. Maybe the US won’t break up politically, but would it really be much better if someone like Hugo Chavez comes to power?

美国千禧一代在经济上的表现比他们同龄时期的父母还要差。也许美国不会在政治上分裂,但如果像乌戈·查韦斯(注:委内瑞拉第 52、53 任总统)这样的人上台,情况真的会好得多吗?


Josh Bergeman:
Well that's one of the very few redeeming features of the US system, even if someone like Chavez came into power his ability to make radical changes would be severely limited! Just look at what Trump has accomplished, and that's with a republican majority!
Actually my biggest fear is that Trump and the Hawks in Congress are going to get us into a war with North Korea! Even a month ago I would have said that will never happen, but every time NK tests another missile Trump's support for a war grows stronger! And I truly believe that is what he wants! But of course it won't be him and his that do the fighting and dying! I think war with NK is the only thing that might break the US!



Jeffery Zhang:
I don’t know how well checks and balances will work if it really came to that. Lincoln threatened to arrest the chief justice of the Supreme Court and suspended habeas corpus.
Since the president is in charge of executing the laws, he can arrest his political enemies in congress on charges of breaking some law. Given the recent wave of powerful men taken down by sexual harassment allegations, I’m not confident that congress will be able to withstand a purge by the executive branch.


Congress is vulnerable to divide and conquer tactics. An effective president bent on taking power from congress will have little trouble dividing congress and purging his enemies.
I don’t think Trump is a good example. Trump wants to be liked too much to be an effective president. Imagine someone like Putin as president. He doesn’t need to be liked. He just wants loyalty from his friends and fear from his enemies. Do you think someone like Putin will have trouble finding something to bring down his enemies in congress?


Since presidential impeachment requires majority of the house and 2/3 majority in the senate, all the President needs is loyalty of 1/3 of the senate to be impeachment proof. Individual members of congress, on the other hand has no such protection against criminal prosecution. An effective president can pick off his congressional enemies one by one. Imagine knowing that opposing the president means bringing down the full weight of the DOJ on you, your family, friends, and supporters while the president has an impeachment proof block of allies in the Senate. I think the smart thing to do for a Congressman who oppose the president is to call in sick when you don’t agree on a vote.



Josh Bergeman:
Watch what is going on right now with the DOJ and the Russia investigation! Trump wishes that the DOJ was under his thumb! In order to do what you are suggesting would require a FBI director willing to support him and that doesn't seem that likely! What would likely happen is you would get two or three congressman under investigation and then you would get a full revolt in Congress! Remember that in the end congressman are answerable to the voting public not the president! And of course the judiciary is totally independent!



Jeffery Zhang:
Again, Trump is a bad example. He is not an effective leader in general. He doesn’t inspire loyalty or fear. People don’t take him seriously.
The director of the FBI serves at the president’s leisure. He can fire any disobedient director and hire a loyalist. Trump’s ineffectiveness is seen by his inability to arm twist members of congress.


An effective president would order a night of the long knives for his enemies in congress. Just quietly gather evidence of wrong doing and arrest them all at night, in their beds. By morning only the loyal and the scared would be in congress.
Imagine how much easier it would be to pass laws if half of congress got arrest one night. Both houses and senate only require a single majority for a quorum. So theoretically the president can arrest 49 members of the senate and 217 members of the house over night and still have a quorum to pass whatever legislation he wants the next morning.


American presidents have thus far not resorted to such extreme measures because such a move would set a very radical precedent. However, nothing institutionally prevents such an outcome. The president is very well within his powers to order the arrest of half of congress in one night. Nothing prohibits this in the Constitution, and nothing in the oaths that law enforcement and military swears ask them to defend criminals who happen to sit in congress.



Josh Bergeman:
I will admit that your senario is interesting but I am not sure if it could work like that! Granted I am not an expert but I think in a situation like you discribe the states would have to send replacements and then hold emergency elections! Like I said I'm not an expert though and it would certainly be interesting, if I was in Europe say lol!
Anyway, thanks for the nightmares lol!

我承认你的设想很有趣,但我不确定它是否真会那样!当然,我不是专家,但我认为,在像你描述的那种情况下,各州肯定会派人进行替换,然后举行紧急选举!就像我刚说的,尽管我不是专家,我还是觉得你说的很有意思 lol!


Wyatt Peck:
America is an internally weak frxwork of very different people's. It will break apart, meanwhile China will conquer and annex Taiwan, and Mongolia by 2049.


Mervyn Locke:
I have the same view of EU. The decline of patriotism and importance of the nation state will be their demise, with small fiefdoms comprising various political factions; feminists, neoliberals, Islamists and so forth. Because politics have today become so infected and polarized in the West that compromise is no longer an option.



James Luong (梁孟俊)
Sir, such a prediction has gone a bit too far? Surely the us have more to unite them as a nation. Even if the ua splinters, it will eventually be reunited. You know, 合久必分、分久必合。

(Paul Denlinger)大佬,这样的预测有点太过分了吧?无疑的,美国有更多的力量使其作为一个国家来团结起来,即使是美国分裂,它最终也会重新统一,你懂的,合久必分、分久必合。


Quang Nguyen:
Trust me Paul, in 2040 there is a much higher chance that China would break into a civil war, fall into a great economy crisis, or have a nuclear war with US than US fall apart and break into states.


Omead Moses:
The US military would never let that happen.



K W Wong:
I think a large country that going to break up should be Russia, China may have a chance to retake Far East Russia


Roger Jiang
That is a rather bold prediction…


Paul Denlinger
It is, but I think it is time to start talking about the end of the US.


Roger Jiang
That would be quite a shock to the ‘Murica No.1 folks…


Paul Denlinger
They are idiots.



Dmitry Petrov, Retired (2017-present)
德米特里 · 彼得罗夫,退休(2017 -现在)

I do not have many doubts that China will become the #1 superpower.
Nevertheless, I find Godfree Roberts' answer to Will China become an unrivaled superpower? to be a huge exaggeration.

尽管如此,我还是觉得戈德菲·罗伯茨(Godfree Roberts,即楼上获得最高赞的答主)对中国是否会成为一个无可匹敌的超级大国的答案,有点太夸张了。

The Chinese deal with reality differently related to Europeans, including Russians and Americans. Sometimes it works well, sometimes it does not. The citizens of Middle Kingdom have a strong capacity to invent things, but they invent things in their own way, which hardly ever will be proved to become uncomparably the best. The example of their predecessor, Japan, has already shown this. See: “China’s growth miracle has run out of steam” by Michael Pettis, FT NOVEMBER 19, 2017; Amazon.com: Order by Accident: The Origins and Consequences of Conformity in Contemporary Japan (9780813339214): Alan Miller, Satoshi Kanazawa: Books. Neither can they be superior to everybody in ALL branches of science and technology. Their ethics is valid, but other ethical systems are valid too.


The US surely has lost her way, but the chances are high that she will touch the bottom, push off and get to the surface again. Europe, especially Eastern Europe and Germany, hopefully in tune with Russia and in concert with Japan, will work hard to transform positively, in order to catch up with China. India, which is an English-speaking country and which will in few years have the biggest population of the world, will also be up, rather soon, with her will to emerge. The Chinese themselves will try to support a more balanced development, investing their capitals worldwide and trying to upgrade friendly countries.


Then, China has learned from the Great Britain and the US, that being the strongest power shall, in the long run, inevitably turn out counter-productive. Even if the policy of isolationalism, which characterised Ming and Qing dynasties, would not be surely applied in present-day world, some isolationistic features are still present in Chinese mentality; I do not think that China will be too active in expanding militarily towards American continents.
All civilizations tend to lose the impetus when they become too well-off and are not bound to compete for the survival. It would be too strange if the Chinese should become the unprecedented exception.



Poh Foong:
China do not want to be a No. 1 superpower or become the world’s policeman. It has lots of its own problem to tackle. Like the well being of its population. History showed that China is not a country that wants to do harm to other countries or people.



Alan Tam, studied at Manchester Metropolitan University
Alan Tam,在曼彻斯特城市大学学习

China is aging faster then you probably aware. this is a big problem to China economy development as aging population create huge burdens to the nation welfare systems and lower productivity.
China must let go of its strict restriction on birthrate or future is doomed as a society as it is today.



Ethan Mouch, Knows International relations, inside and out.

Unrivaled superpower?
That is way to bold a claim to make. Like, out of left field. This would require alot to happen, namely, for the US to fall off the map. That seems very improbable. Additionally, many people that boast this are forgetting the nation looking like the biggest thorn in China's side for the next decade or two: India. There is a saying that goes:
“The US is the power of today, China is the power of tomorrow, and India is the power of next week.”

无可匹敌的超级大国吗? 这是一个大胆的主张,这种说法有点突如其来(out of left field)的意思。这需要很大的改变才能做到,得美国先坠落,这似乎非常不可能。此外,许多夸耀这一点的人忘记了中国在未来10年或20年里最大的障碍:印度。有一种说法是:


China will be rivaled by two powers in, say, 2050, when they will finally pull away from the US economically. Obviously enough, they are the predecessor, the US, who would need a colossal collaspe to not compete any longer, which is unlikely, and India, the dark horse of geopolitics.


This is also not taking into account the rising powers of that time period. We talk about Saudi Arabia and Iran today as intermediate powers, but as the Middle East oil dries up and cleaner energy sources emerge in the West, that won’t last. Instead, we will be mentioning countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and espeically Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, and South Africa as the importance and economic development of Africa skyrockets in the coming decades.


A balance of power is the general norm in diplomacy. It occurred in Europe for centuries. In the era of colonial nations, France, Britain, Austria, Spain, Portugal, and later Russia, Prussia, and the Netherlands would keep no nation from being too powerful. The British recognized this and made it their general policy in foreign affairs for a long time. When Europe was redrawn in 1815 during the Congress of Vienna, they came seeking a continental status quo, which they achieved for roughly a hundred years until WW1.


That was off topic a bit, but what I am saying is this: What the US achieved with global supremacy after the Cold War was unprecedented, but it is far from surprising it didn't last long. China is no exception to the rule, and will face even more challenges to its power than what the US faces now when it does inevitably take that mantle as the “superpower”.



Mervyn Locke:
India will only surpass China in terms of population size, nothing else.



Metin Basturk:
“The US is the power of today, China is the power of tomorrow, and India is the power of next week.”
I really like this saying, do you know where this is from?



Ethan Mouch
I don't really have a specific source. I just picked it up over a period of time. I searched a few times but couldn't find much.

Metin Basturk
It's good bro, I also tried looking for it as well and couldn't find anything.



Bob MacKenzie, former Business Owner and Manager. at Private (1973-2017)
鲍勃·麦克肯兹,前私人企业主和经理 (1973-2017)

China is a super power now. It is not yet unrivaled but with its powerful growth still moving at a rate unrivaled and the US prominence fading, China will definitely become unrivaled and it will not take more than 20 years to do it.
The effects of the federal bank pumping endless money into the US system to keep it afloat will come to an end much sooner than we may all think.
2018 could be a pivotal year for the world’s economy. US indebtedness, inflation, military complex control of the budget at a time when rivals with little or no debt are creating an arms race plus internal unrest between the haves and the have nots, is going to exacerbate US decline in 2018. The combined effects could be enough to push it over the edge.




Alex Liu, Editor at For Freedom (2013-present)
Alex Liu, 《为自由而战》编辑,2013至今

Yes, China will be an unrivaled superpower if the below fact would not happened.
Family of Yang Gailan with total members of 8: her parents in law, husband, 3 daughters, and 1 son.
The main family income was from her husband with RMB 5,000 (USD 750) per year. If the family was qualified for low income assistant of government, the family could get extra RMB 3,600 (USD 550). It was totally USD 1,300, divided by 8 members, each member with USA 0.45 per day.


However, local officials stripped Ms. Yang of welfare benefits two years ago because she did not meet the official standard for poverty, which in China applies to people earning less than $350 per year. This reduced each member ‘s money of Yang’s family to USD 0.25 per day. It was too hard to the family to survive.
In Sep 2016, Ms. Yang killed herself after poisoning her children with pesticides and attacking them with an ax. After 1 week her husband also committed suicide.



Noel Leong, Chief Financial Officer at Semiconductors
Noel Leong, 半导体公司首席财务官

China was an unrivaled super power but during that time it existed as a myth and legend to most in the West. Then comes the period of long isolation and failure to move with the progress of time. This led to the demise of China in late 19th century and long period of catching up with the rest of the developed world. Fast forward 100 years and there’s every indication that China will once again be a power to be reckoned with in the 21st century. There’s no doubt that China will overtake US as the biggest economy in the world, which it may already has. However, there’s still a great disparity in economic development between different regions in China. If China managed to get all regions to develop into first world economy, it will be unrivaled as an economic power.


As for political and military power, China is still playing catch-up and not at the same level as US, Russia or even India. However, things are changing and China is taking a patient stands in developing its political influence and in modernizing it’s military. The Belt Road initiative would help its to increase its influence from South East Asia to Africa. It could be an unrivaled super power as it was in the 15th century if it is able to keep up with changess in technology and maintain political stability at home.



Shane Dunning:
No. They are due to run out of water in the year 2030. They are also experiencing extremely low birth rates and pollution levels are so high its cities are barely habitable. They are also in 260% debt to GDP ratio so their economy will most likely fall apart and some point when they lose the ability to pay even interest on their debts.



Ken Chan:
Simply no. There was not a single unrivaled superpower ever in human history and it is hard to foresee one to come soon. You have the British empire losing USA when it was very powerful and you have NK threatening USA with nuclear weapons now. Even if you have the biggest GDP doesn't mean that you are unrivaled and can do whatever you want.



Mervyn Locke, Enlightened laowai/Decade-long China resident

Maybe. But it won’t happen overnight. I’d say that if it would happen, it will take at least another 10–20 years.



Ludwig Nijholt, works at Marvel: Avengers Alliance

Given what the US are experiencing in that position, it would not seem the most wise of things to wish for.
Other than that, my glass ball seems to be quite foggy again.



Noah Zuo, lived in China

Aging of population would be the biggest problem of Chinese developing.
I hope China can get over this.



Cam Iwea:
At the rate it’s debt is increasing, no. Perhaps it can be a superpower, but not “unrivaled”



Xinrui Shang, lives in China
No.China is very traditional,it always follows ancient truth which goes after love and peace.



Ray Comeau, A decade in China, interest in geopolitics

The answer is a definite …… maybe.
There are too many unknown factors at this time to plot a likely outcome.


·  Will China continue to grow economically ….. yes
·  Will China continue to grow militarily ……. yes
·  Will China’s influence continue to grow ….. yes
·  Will India continue to grow economically ……. yes
·  Will the US continue to hold onto it’s economic importance and military power for the time being ……. yes
·  Will the US’s economy and military begin to encounter diminishing returns …….. yes
·  Will the decline in US influence continue slowly, level-off or it will accelerate …… unknown
·  Will alliances the US have be maintainable ….. unknown
·  Will India’s growth be enough to catch China …… unknown
·  Will India’s military be able to table a compliment of modern weaponry ….. unknown
·  Will the gap in technical superiority of US weapons systems, be closed by China ……. yes
·  China welcomes a working partnership with the US; will that continue or change in the future …….. unknown
·  China’s military is primarily for protecting the integrity of China’s territory; will that change in future ……. unknown

· 中国经济会继续增长吗……是。
· 中国在军事上会继续发展吗……是。
· 中国的影响力会继续增长吗……是。
· 印度经济会继续增长吗……是。
· 美国会继续保持其经济重要性和军事实力吗……是。
· 美国的经济和军事是否会开始遭遇回报递减的问题……是。
· 美国影响力将会持续缓慢下降,趋于平稳,还是会加速……未知。
· 美国的联盟会不会得到维护……未知。
· 印度的增长是否足以赶上中国……未知。
· 印度军方是否能提供值得称道的现代武器……未知。
· 美国武器系统的技术优势是否会被中国缩小……是。
· 中国欢迎与美国建立合作伙伴关系;这种伙伴关系将在未来会不会继续或改变……未知。
· 中国军队的主要目的是保护中国领土的完整;这种情况将来会改变吗……未知。